Iran closes its airspace by May 8? ↗

Price rose 7.0pp from 16.0% to 23.0% over 3.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 18.5%, down 4.5pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 21.5%, 72h range: 11.5%-42.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Iran issues a formal closure of its airspace (e.g., nationwide NOTAM/official shutdown) by May 8; NO=no such formal closure occurs by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2 (Iran seizes ships in Hormuz; US JCS says forces ready to resume operations), D=2 (US Defense Sec says truce holds/“not looking for a fight”/operation temporary; Pakistan mediators say talks progressing), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 16% to 23%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
There is no ★ DIRECT evidence of an airspace closure or imminent aviation-specific steps (no NOTAMs, no Iranian civil aviation announcement), while de-escalatory on-record statements (truce holds; not seeking war) and mediator “progress” headlines reduce the near-term need to close airspace. With mixed E/D but senior official D signals outweighing generic escalation for this resolution, the 7pp rise looks process/emotion-driven rather than resolution-adjacent. Net: the move was not justified and should revert.

Kill switches:
- Iran Civil Aviation Organization issues a nationwide NOTAM closing Iranian FIR to civilian flights before May 8
- Iranian government spokesperson announces a temporary nationwide airspace shutdown due to military operations
- Major international airlines confirm Iran’s airspace is closed and reroute around a declared FIR closure
- Sustained, confirmed resumption of heavy strikes inside Iran accompanied by Iranian ATC advisories warning of imminent airspace closure
- Official Iranian military order or Interior Ministry directive publicly instructs closure of airports/airspace nationwide before May 8

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.