Iran closes its airspace by May 8? ↗

Price rose 6.5pp from 12.5% to 19.0% over 4.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 16.5%, down 2.5pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 11.5%, 72h range: 11.5%-21.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Iran issues an official airspace-closure (e.g., NOTAM/order) by May 8; NO=no such closure by then; This is a CESSATION market. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=1 (Trump announcing a “Project Freedom” operation to open the Strait — regional escalation that could marginally raise closure risk), D=3 (US–Iran talks confirmed/underway, “progress” per Pakistani sources/Al Arabiya, formal proposal/reply via Pakistan) and L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 12% to 19%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Logical Divergence: de-escalatory D-signals dominated while price rose (no Strong Divergence, opposing D<4). No headline reports any Iranian authority announcing closure or issuing aviation NOTAMs; instead the strongest ★ DIRECT-adjacent items are diplomacy/progress and even a denial of a ship seizure — all of which reduce near-term closure odds — so a 6.5pp spike on process-only news looks overstated and should mean-revert.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.