Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? ↗

Price rose 2.9pp from 0.7% to 3.6% over 1h (steady). Now at 3.6%.

Days to resolution: 26 days. Theta-bleed check: This is an election outcome market with the trend UP; there’s no time-decay push helping an UP move, and absence of news does not inherently lift YES here. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (there are zero direct items); the trend is UP, implying YES is becoming more likely, but there is no direct catalyst to align with it. News momentum is STARVED: only one niche context piece about disability representation and some nomination delays (including PPP mentioned) — no polls, alliances, or official filings tied to who will win. After clustering: 0 distinct ★DIRECT events from 1 total articles. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no concrete signals, continuation pressure looks weak and the steady rise is likely liquidity-driven; Remaining space: 3.6pp, placing the price near the 0% boundary, which also limits scope for further upside without real catalysts. Step 3 checks: Rule 4 (plateauing/starved) binds toward STALL; no conflicting rules apply.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.