Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? ↗

Price fell 3.5pp from 68.0% to 64.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 64.5%.

Days to resolution: 20 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL; time alone shouldn’t move odds here. YES-WORLD: resolves YES if Chun Jae-soo is officially certified/declared the winner of the 2026 Busan mayoral election; NO-WORLD: resolves NO if anyone else is certified winner or Chun is not certified by the deadline (polls/exit polls are near-misses); there are no ★DIRECT events to label. Direction alignment: the trend is DOWN for NO (implying rising YES odds), but the news payload has zero ★DIRECT items and only a stale, unrelated context piece, so the move is not substantiated by news (MIXED/STARVED). Momentum looks exhausted: front-loaded selling with no fresh catalyst suggests limited follow-through. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=1; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no fresh supportive signals and ample room, stabilization is more likely than continued decline or a sharp snap-back; Remaining space: 64.5pp. Hard rules: RULE 4 (starved/plateauing) binds to STALL; no clear news-trend conflict and coverage is thin (⚠), so conviction stays LOW.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.