Starmer out by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 7.5pp from 25.0% to 17.5% over 8.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 19.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 9.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 48.5%, 72h range: 17.5%-49.5%]

Assessment: FAIR
Conviction: MEDIUM
Size: null
Reasoning:
- Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer is out (no longer PM/party leader) by June 30, 2026; NO = he remains in office through that date. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World.
- Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
- Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0).
- Self-check: no change.
- Theta direction: DOWN
- Price move direction: DOWN (from 25% to 18%)
- Alignment: SAME
- Theta: DOWN — aligned
- No Strong Divergence: there are no ★ DIRECT resolution-level signals (no resignation, no formal leadership challenge/timetable, no confidence vote), and statements like “Starmer says he won’t resign” are process/context and do not satisfy the settlement criteria either way.
- Given a near-term deadline and theta-aligned move, the 7.5pp decline is consistent with time decay absent concrete steps toward removal; despite heavy media pressure coverage, there were no incremental resolution-adjacent triggers to justify pushing YES up. The drop was therefore justified by structure (theta) rather than new direct evidence, so mean reversion is not indicated on the news alone.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.