US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 9.5pp from 66.0% to 56.5% over 12.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 58.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 6.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 67.5%, 72h range: 56.5%-71.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a bona fide US–Iran diplomatic meeting is announced/held by the deadline; NO = no such meeting occurs. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=3, D=2). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 66% to 56%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence: the drop aligns with time-decay and there were no fresh opposing E signals during the move window. No ★ DIRECT scheduling/confirmation exists; process-only positives (Trump: “very positive” talks; “Iran shows more flexibility”; “US confirms talks with Iran”) help YES but were pre-move, while negatives (Pakistan-mediated channel “failed,” US rejection of an Iranian proposal) were also pre-move and do not constitute resolution. With a near-term deadline and zero incremental E/D, a steady 9.5pp drift is primarily theta-driven rather than a mispricing, so the move was justified; the small rebound looks like flow retrace, not a structural reversal cue.

Kill switches:
- White House or Iran Foreign Ministry formally announces and dates a bilateral US–Iran meeting before June 30, 2026.
- Credible mediator (e.g., Oman, Qatar, Iraq, Switzerland) publicly announces scheduled direct US–Iran talks with a venue/date.
- State Department readout confirms a direct meeting occurred between US and Iranian officials.
- Pool report/photos confirm a meeting between senior US and Iranian officials on the sidelines of an international summit.
- Joint US–Iran statement outlining agenda and date for direct talks is released.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.