Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 2.5pp from 37.0% to 39.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 39.5%.

Days to resolution: 249 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this short window, as the deadline is well beyond 90 days. The trend is UP (+2.5pp spike), implying YES (Russia capturing all of Lyman) is seen as more likely. The ★DIRECT news includes one relevant event: "Russian troops advance in Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast." However, Rodynske is not Lyman, and there is no direct confirmation of Russian forces capturing or entering Lyman itself—per the market-type module, only full capture or official confirmation of Lyman matters for escalation. The other ★DIRECT events are unrelated to the market resolution (Bosnia's EU path, Ukraine-Azerbaijan talks). After clustering, there is only 1 distinct, but indirect, momentum signal and 0 counter-signals. The news is thus weakly supportive of the trend, but not intensifying—there is no concrete action in Lyman, only general Russian advances in the broader oblast. The move is a small spike, not a surge, and there is no evidence of a resolution-class event or strong follow-through catalyst. Remaining space: 10.5pp (from 39.5% to 50%). Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Step 3 hard rules: No news-trend conflict, not highly mixed, not a spike exhaustion, and no boundary or multi-threshold issues. The signal is too weak for CONTINUE, but not negative enough for REVERSE.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.