US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price fell 5.0pp from 17.5% to 12.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 12.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 18.5%, 72h range: 12.5%-32.5%] [EVR: 72h range 20.0pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 10 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline ≤90 days, positive action required, and the observed move is DOWN for NO); absent concrete progress, probabilities should drift toward NO, so time decay works against the observed drop. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO: we have ACTION-tier setbacks — Pakistan-mediated US–Iran talks “fail” and Trump formally rejects Iran’s proposal — while the pro-YES items are “positive discussions” headlines, which are RHETORIC and count as NOISE; proposals “sent via Pakistan” are EVIDENCE-tier and do not satisfy the meeting criterion. This conflicts with the price move (NO down implies YES up). News momentum for a near-term meeting is not intensifying; it leans on rhetoric while concrete signals point to obstacles. After clustering, distinct ★DIRECT events reduce to: (1) talks failing and (2) Trump’s formal rejection; no ACTION-tier pro-meeting steps. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=2. Remaining space: 12.5pp. Given the conflict with news plus theta-bleed at a boundary (≤20%), further downside in NO looks limited absent a fresh catalyst; expect stabilization rather than follow-through. Step 3 checks: RULE 1 (news-trend conflict) → no CONTINUE; RULE 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) → prefer STALL; other rules not binding.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.