Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? ↗

Price rose 18.3pp from 26.2% to 44.5% over 11.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 42.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump publicly announces the end of U.S. military operations against Iran by May 31; NO = no such Trump announcement. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=2; cessation D-collapse applied: multiple “ongoing/escalation” items collapsed to one status-quo D plus one new system deployment D). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 26% to 44%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Logical Divergence: the UP move is aligned with de-escalatory momentum (E>D); no Strong Divergence. ★ DIRECT drivers were on-record U.S. statements that hostilities have “terminated” due to the ceasefire (senior admin official/Reuters; AP-style coverage) and Defense Secretary Hegseth’s “clock stops” framing—these do not yet satisfy “Trump announces” but materially increase the odds of such an announcement by month-end. Given two fresh, high-signal de-escalatory statements close to the resolution criteria, an 18pp repricing sits within the 10–20pp range for resolution-adjacent news; while some legalistic phrasing (“for War Powers purposes”) invites lawyerly caution, it does not negate the core de-escalation signal. Overall, the spike was justified by news rather than pure emotion, so mean reversion is not favored.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.