Iran leadership change by May 31? ↗

Price fell 4.0pp from 9.5% to 5.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 5.5%.

Days to resolution: 24 days. Theta-bleed check: leadership change requires a positive, discrete action, and with <90 days left, time-decay normally favors NO; today’s DOWN move in NO runs against that, so it would need concrete catalysts to sustain. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED: there are zero direct items about Iran’s leadership changing, and the coverage centers on U.S.-Iran de-escalation/talks, which does not directly advance a leadership change and arguably tilts against sudden ouster in an authoritarian system. News momentum is starved/echoing market commentary about a potential deal and a pause in naval escorts, not intensifying around any leadership-process trigger (resignation, incapacitation, succession body actions, coup signals). Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 5.5pp. With no direct catalysts for leadership change and theta-bleed leaning the other way, and given the boundary zone at 5.5% for NO, follow-through lower looks limited and the move is likely to stall near current levels; Hard-rule check: Rule 4 (plateauing/starved/echo) binds to STALL, and Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) reinforces a STALL bias absent fresh direct catalysts.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.