Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? ↗

Price fell 3.0pp from 40.5% to 37.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 37.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 42.5%, 72h range: 32.5%-43.5%]

Days to resolution: 237 days. Theta-bleed check: Deadline is >90 days, so time-decay is negligible over the next 2-3 days. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (there are no ★DIRECT items), while the trend is DOWN (NO falling), implying YES is becoming more likely; context coverage (testimony critical of Altman) modestly aligns with that direction. News momentum looks plateauing and largely echo coverage of the same testimonies, with no rulings, filings, or court orders to shift odds materially during the window. After clustering: 0 distinct ★DIRECT events from 30 total articles; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no concrete catalysts and a small 3pp “spike” move pushing away from 50%, follow-through is likely limited in the short term. Remaining space: 37.5pp. Hard-rule check: Rule 2 (BALANCED MIXED on signal quality) → STALL; Rule 4 triggered by “plateauing/echo” → STALL; Spike exhaustion (Rule 5) not applicable (>5pp threshold not met); no theta-bleed exception.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.