Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? ↗

Price fell 2.6pp from 39.4% to 36.8% over 1h (steady). Now at 36.8%.

retrieval recorded but no surviving headlines — the keyword nets didn't match any articles in the window.

Days to resolution: 48 days. YES-WORLD: The market resolves YES if J.D. Vance is verifiably documented as physically attending the next US–Iran diplomatic meeting before June 30. NO-WORLD: It resolves NO if he does not attend that next meeting by the deadline, including near-miss cases where a meeting occurs without him or he signals intent but does not attend. Theta-bleed check: This is a positive-action-by-deadline market within 90 days, so absence of progress should favor NO over time; today’s DOWN move in the NO contract runs against that decay. Direction alignment: There were no ★DIRECT items; thus the news does not support either side while the trend implies YES getting more likely, so alignment is absent. Momentum is starved (⚠ coverage warning), with no ★DIRECT events to classify; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no catalysts, theta favors NO drifting up, so a further NO selloff lacks support and is likely to fade; Remaining space: 36.8pp. Step 3 hard rules: Rule 4 (starved) points to STALL, and Rule 5 (zero news with coverage warning) also biases to STALL rather than REVERSE.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.