Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ↗

Price fell 4.2pp from 12.0% to 7.8% over 1h (spike). Now at 7.8%.

Days to resolution: 917 days. Theta-bleed check: Not a time-decay market (deadline >> 90 days), so absence of news does not inherently drive NO lower over a 2-3 day horizon. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports neither side — there are no direct items — while the trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely); context mildly favors Harris’s perceived viability (e.g., a Texas poll showing strength vs. Trump and analysis hinting at DNC tilt), with some negative/opinion pieces offsetting that, so this is ASYMMETRIC MIXED slightly in favor of the down move. The move is a short spike without a matching ★DIRECT catalyst, and coverage is largely opinion/analysis rather than concrete party actions, indicating weak immediate pressure for further downside. After clustering: 0 distinct ★DIRECT events from 14 articles; Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=1. Given zero concrete catalysts and price already in a low range, further downside is constrained by boundary dynamics; stabilization near current levels is more likely than continued decline. Remaining space: 7.8pp. Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict; not Balanced Mixed; no binding hard rule compels CONTINUE; judgment favors STALL due to lack of ★DIRECT catalysts behind the spike.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.