Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? ↗

Price rose 15.3pp from 46.2% to 61.5% over 5.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 56.5%, down 5.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 53.5%, 72h range: 43.5%-72.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump explicitly announces the end of US military operations against Iran by June 30; NO = no such Trump announcement (or operations continue without an end announcement). Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. 
Momentum check: E=2, D=6, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=6 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). 
Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 46% to 62%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Strong Divergence: Yes — multiple fresh D signals (≥4) while price rose. 
★ DIRECT-like E: senior officials argue the ceasefire “terminated” hostilities and may pause the War Powers clock, and reports note the ceasefire has been extended — these are process E’s but not Trump’s announcement; ★ DIRECT D: CENTCOM/commanders briefing Trump on options and a “final blow,” a request to deploy hypersonic missiles, Trump affirming an ongoing naval blockade, Iran threatening “long and painful” retaliation, the Supreme Leader vowing to protect nuclear/missile capabilities, and skepticism about a near-term diplomatic meeting — all reduce the odds that Trump imminently declares an end to operations. None of today’s headlines constitutes, or commits Trump to, the required announcement; the move looks like an overread of legal framing around the ceasefire versus an actual end-of-operations declaration. Some upward repricing is understandable on the “hostilities terminated” messaging, but a 15pp spike overshoots given the heavier, opposing D flow, so a partial mean reversion down is warranted.