Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? ↗

Price fell 3.2pp from 14.2% to 11.0% over 1h (steady). Now at 11.0%.

Days to resolution: 231 days. YES resolves if Alberta holds an official province-wide independence referendum in 2026; NO resolves if no such vote occurs by Dec 31, including attempts that are proposed or petitioned but blocked (a near-miss). Theta-bleed is negligible here (deadline >90 days, not a win/lose election-result market). Among ★DIRECT items, there is one concrete ACTION-tier event supporting NO: an Alberta court struck down/blocked the independence petition/approval as “unreasonable” (multiple outlets reporting the same ruling); the premier calling the ruling “anti-democratic” is RHETORIC (0), and May 11 items about filing the petition/“hopes” for an October vote are EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS and STALE. The ★DIRECT news thus predominantly supports NO, while the trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely) — this is a CONFLICT. Coverage is fresh and widely confirmed, indicating a decisive setback to scheduling any 2026 vote. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=1 (petition filed/hope pieces), counter_fresh=1, counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1. Remaining space: 11pp; with price already near the lower boundary for NO, further downside would need strong pro-YES catalysts (absent), so a reversion is more likely; per Rule 1 (news–trend conflict with a concrete ACTION), REVERSE is favored over STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.