Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? ↗

Price fell 12.1pp from 97.2% to 85.1% over 9h (spike). Now at 85.1%.

Days to resolution: 3 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. YES-WORLD: “Powell is out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026” (he no longer holds the Chair by the deadline); NO-WORLD: Powell remains Chair through May 16, or any steps toward replacement occur but he is not yet out (successor confirmed but not in office = near-miss). All May 13 “Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair” headlines (multiple outlets with a 54–45 vote) are NEAR-MISS EVIDENCE-tier — they are concrete votes but do not themselves satisfy “Powell out by May 16.” Within-window ★DIRECT items are: (1) “Powell to step down; Warsh expected successor” (EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS), and (2) “Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor — step toward succession” (EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS). Thus the ★DIRECT news leans toward YES but only as process, not completion; the trend is DOWN in NO, so directionally they align but with weak quality, and momentum looks plateauing without an in-window ACTION-tier trigger. After clustering in-window: 2 distinct near-miss events from 2 direct articles; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 85.1pp. Step 3 checks: Rule 4 binds (plateauing/no confirmed action in-window) → STALL; no theta-bleed exception; no balanced mixed conflict.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.