Starmer out by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 12.0pp from 27.5% to 39.5% over 1.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 36.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 72h range: 27.5%-69.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer leaves office/party leadership by May 31, 2026; NO = he remains in post through that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=4, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=2, D=1). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 28% to 40%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Logical Divergence against the move (E>D), and no Strong Divergence. Action-tier signals supporting YES include two ministerial resignations (Miatta Fahnbulleh, Jess Phillips) and an earlier formal challenge threat; opposing D action includes Catherine West backing down and reports of cabinet backing after Starmer told ministers he would stay (support statements are not resolution-level). None of these satisfy the settlement criterion (Starmer actually out/removed), but fresh resignations are concrete pressure that reasonably justify a 10–12pp repricing. Given news alignment with the spike and absence of ≥3 fresh opposing D signals, the move was justified; no clear mean-reversion edge.