Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ↗

Price fell 2.7pp from 21.6% to 18.9% over 2h (steady). Now at 18.9%.

Days to resolution: 929 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this short window given the long time to resolution. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news during this period is a single event—Rep. Luna calling for a Vance/Rubio ticket, which is a speculative endorsement and not a concrete process signal for Rubio winning the GOP nomination. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), and the news does not provide any concrete positive momentum for Rubio's chances; if anything, it frames him as a potential VP or cabinet pick, not the nominee. News momentum is plateauing: there is no intensifying coverage of Rubio's nomination prospects, and the only Rubio-related news is about his policy actions as Secretary of State or general political commentary, not nomination process steps. After clustering, there is 1 distinct ★DIRECT event, which is weak and not a concrete action toward the nomination. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1 (the Luna endorsement implicitly positions Rubio as not the top of the ticket). Remaining space: 13.9pp (from 18.9% to 5%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, but the only ★DIRECT event is not a momentum signal for YES; signal quality is low and does not support further downward movement with conviction. No evidence of intensifying negative process signals or new blockages for Rubio, but also no positive momentum.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.