Iran closes its airspace by May 31? ↗

Price rose 6.5pp from 29.5% to 36.0% over 2.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 34.0%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 29.5%, 72h range: 25.5%-36.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran issues an official NOTAM/announcement closing national airspace by May 31; NO = no such closure, status quo flights continue with only threats/process. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. This is a closure-by-deadline market (closure more likely with kinetic/aerial risk or explicit closure steps; talks/de-escalation reduce odds). Momentum check: E=3, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=1 (priced-in: E=2, D=1). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 30% to 36%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; price rose alongside modestly pro-YES momentum. Incremental E came from Iran deploying drones in/around the Strait of Hormuz, multiple “decisive response” warnings to French/British warships, and U.S. blockade actions redirecting/disablements that raise regional risk; the main D was Iran formally responding via Pakistan to a U.S. de-escalation proposal (D7). None of these are settlement-level (no Iranian NOTAM or official airspace closure), but several medium-impact escalation signals reasonably justify a 5–10pp risk repricing, so the 6.5pp rise was justified rather than an overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.