Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 6.8pp from 31.9% to 25.1% over 1h (spike). Now at 25.1%.

Days to resolution: 48 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-bound election market where YES requires a positive action (Valencia winning); in the absence of favorable developments for her, time-decay would typically support NO, not a drop in NO — and we do have fresh polling adverse to Valencia, so theta does not back the observed move. The ★DIRECT news is absent, but the contextual news predominantly supports NO: multiple outlets report the new CNC poll with Valencia falling behind Abelardo de la Espriella and Cepeda firmly leading, consistent with prior AtlasIntel trend mentions. The move is a >5pp down spike in NO with no matching pro-Valencia catalyst, while coverage concentrates on a widely reported poll that makes a Valencia win less likely, suggesting the spike is at odds with available information and prone to partial reversion. After clustering, this is essentially one distinct polling event (CNC) unfavorable to Valencia repeated across outlets. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1. Remaining space: 25.1pp. Hard rule check: RULE 1 (news–trend conflict) binds → STALL or REVERSE; RULE 5 (spike >5pp without a matching catalyst) tilts to REVERSE.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.