Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? ↗

Price rose 6.0pp from 65.5% to 71.5% over 4.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 69.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 2.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 59.5%, 72h range: 51.0%-78.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = bill passes both chambers and is signed into law in 2026; NO = not signed into law in 2026. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=1 (R=0 unverified) — the only incremental DIRECT-type signal is “negotiations stall/bipartisan deal collapsed” ahead of markup (L2 blocker); claims of “majority secured” and “vote today” are process/rhetoric, not resolution.
Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 66% to 72%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence, but there is clear divergence: price rose on net-bearish incremental momentum. No ★ DIRECT action like “vote passes [N–M]”, conference agreement, or presidential signature occurred; markup scheduling and industry endorsements are process and do not satisfy “signed into law.” A 6pp steady repricing on process-only headlines with a same-window “talks stalled/collapsed” blocker is an overreaction likely to mean-revert partially.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.