Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗

Price fell 4.0pp from 33.5% to 29.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 29.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 33.5%, 72h range: 29.5%-50.0%] [EVR: 72h range 20.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 245 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this short horizon since the deadline is well over 90 days away. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), and there are zero ★DIRECT events—no new physical or legal actions relevant to a U.S. invasion of Iran. All news is CONTEXT: it references ongoing war, political rhetoric, congressional hearings, and commentary on the costs and consequences of the conflict, but none of it constitutes a new escalation or de-escalation event per the market's resolution criteria. The news flow is plateauing, with repeated coverage of the same actors and themes (Trump, Hegseth, congressional hearings, war costs), but no fresh operational developments. Per Principle 4, rhetoric and commentary—even if heated—do not count as momentum signals. After clustering, there are zero momentum signals and zero counter-signals: "Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0". The move is steady, not a spike, and the extreme volatility regime (EVR) appears to be liquidity-driven rather than news-driven, as the news does not explain the wide 72h price range. Remaining space: 29.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: With zero ★DIRECT signals and only contextual/rhetorical news, and both trend and counter signals at zero, this is a classic STALL scenario per Principle 1 and Rule 2 (BALANCED MIXED by absence). No rules override this outcome.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.