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Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? ↗
will-tom-steyer-win-the-california-governor-election-in-2026
· California Governor Election Winner · category: California Midterm, Elections, Governor midterms, Politics, Rewards 300 4.5 50, US Election
· resolves
run_id: ba7002cb-e696-4ab4-b79c-86c7d96e80fc
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected
● executed
detect_momentum · UR
direction
DOWN
current price
34.2%
anchor → trigger
43.6% → 34.2%
cusum @ trigger
-6.22
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
32.1%—43.5%
(Δ11.4pp)
tick density (6h)
0.50
Price fell 9.4pp from 43.6% to 34.2% over 1h (spike). Now at 34.2%.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 122 → 7
quality: HIGH
tokens: 5558
article_thesis
relevant
Will Jim Steyer Shape CA's AI Future if Brother Tom Is Elected Governor?
article_thesis
relevant
Will Tuesday's California gubernatorial debate be 'calm' or 'a mess?'
article_precursor
relevant
Debate para gobernador de California este miércoles: cómo verlo en vivo
article_precursor
relevant
Does Tom Steyer's YUTREPIA Endorsement Reframe the Bull Case for Liquidia (LQDA)?
article_thesis
relevant
Republicans may be cheering for this Democrat in the next gov debate
article_precursor
relevant
CA gubernatorial candidates rally in Bay Area as vote-by-mail ballots arrive ahead of June primary
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-UR · continuation analysis
STALL
conviction: LOW
opportunity: SMALL
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.2.0 · 10748 tokens
Days to resolution: 182 days. Theta-bleed check: Not active (deadline > 90 days), so absence of news does not mechanically pressure the NO side. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports neither side (none provided), but CONTEXT leans modestly pro-Steyer (YES) — which aligns with the DOWN move in NO probability. Momentum-wise, coverage centers on debates and a prior progressive endorsement story; no fresh, resolution-class catalysts appeared in the window, so this looks starved of direct catalysts after a >5pp spike. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 34.2pp. Given the lack of concrete polling or institutional signals to lock in further downside for NO and the spike-like move, continuation forces are weak and near-term follow-through is limited; I expect stabilization rather than sustained drift. Hard rule check: No NEWS-TREND conflict; Rule 4 (starved of direct catalysts) points to STALL; Rule 5 (spike exhaustion) cautions against assuming continuation.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
all
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.