Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? ↗

Price fell 9.0pp from 24.5% to 15.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 15.5%.

Days to resolution: 605 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline is >90 days, so time decay is negligible over a 2–3 day horizon and does not justify further downside on its own. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (there are no direct resolution-touching events), while the trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming less likely; the move is therefore not supported by direct signals. Coverage during the window is starved of any concrete steps related to Maduro’s sentencing; items about the ICJ Essequibo case and unrelated U.S. prosecutions are topic-adjacent but not resolution-relevant. After clustering, there are zero distinct direct events; all items classify as NOISE for this market. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With a front-loaded 9pp drop absent catalysts and the current price at 15.5%, downside has limited room and the setup favors a partial retrace rather than continued grind lower. Remaining space: 15.5pp. Hard rule check: Rule 5 (spike exhaustion with no fresh catalyst) leans REVERSE; no other binding rules apply.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.