Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? ↗

Price fell 3.5pp from 26.0% to 22.5% over 3h (steady). Now at 22.5%.

Days to resolution: 252 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this 2-3 day horizon since the deadline is well over 90 days away. Step 1a: There are no ★DIRECT events—no formal resignations, removals, or official party actions against Poilievre—so the news does not directly support YES. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), and the news is only CONTEXT: several polls and articles indicate Poilievre's support among Conservative voters is slipping, with a growing minority wanting him replaced, but still a majority backing him for now. This is a plateauing narrative: the story is not intensifying, but rather repeating the same polling theme with no new concrete developments or process steps toward ouster. Step 2: All events are CONTEXT, not concrete momentum toward removal; thus, momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 17.5pp (from 22.5% to 5%). There is no evidence of imminent action or process against Poilievre, so the downward move is not being driven by direct resolution-class news, and the narrative is not intensifying. Hard rule checks: No news-trend conflict, not highly mixed, and no direct signals—so per Principle 1, signal quality is low and does not justify further continuation. The move is likely running out of news-driven momentum.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.