Iran closes its airspace by May 31? ↗

Price fell 18.2pp from 43.2% to 25.0% over 23.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 27.5%, up 2.5pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 43.5%, 72h range: 25.0%-65.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Iran imposes a national airspace closure by May 31 (e.g., formal NOTAM/FIR shutdown), NO=no such closure occurs; Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. This is a CESSATION market. Momentum check: E=0, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified); Cessation D-collapse: raw D=3 → collapsed D=3. Incremental only: E=0, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 43% to 25%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence (news and price both point to reduced odds of closure), and no Strong Divergence. The incremental D signals are de-escalatory/process-only: reports that the US and Iran are close to a one-page MoU to end the war (D7/D2), mediator confirmation of progress (D5), and a pause in US naval operations/limited ship movement (D4). None of the headlines provide ★ DIRECT evidence of Iran closing airspace; instead they make such a closure less likely, and with a near-term deadline the DOWN move is theta-aligned, so the drop is justified rather than an overreaction.

Kill switches:
- Iran Civil Aviation Organization issues a NOTAM closing Iranian airspace/FIR.
- Iranian government/IRGC announces an immediate national airspace closure.
- Major US or Israeli strike inside Iran prompts authorities to order an airspace shutdown.
- US–Iran channel collapses: both sides publicly deny or withdraw from the reported MoU framework.
- Large inbound missile/drone barrage toward Iran triggers a government-ordered airspace closure.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.