US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 13.0pp from 71.5% to 58.5% over 5h (steady). Now at 58.5%.

Days to resolution: 10 days. Theta-bleed is active (short deadline, positive action required), which means lack of concrete scheduling/meeting news is bearish for YES and tends to lift NO. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO: the only concrete ACTION items are formal rejections and a reported failure of mediated talks, while pro-YES items are statements about “positive” or “flexible” discussions that are RHETORIC per the rules and count 0. After clustering, distinct ACTION events are: Trump formally rejecting Iran’s proposal, Pakistan-mediated talks reported as having failed, and an Iranian envoy rejecting “humiliating peace” — none advance a qualifying meeting. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=3. Remaining space: 58.5pp. Given concrete counter-trend ACTION signals plus theta-bleed opposing the price move, a partial reversion toward a higher NO price is more likely over the next 2–3 days. Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 1 (NEWS-TREND CONFLICT) binds; Reverse Decision Framework condition (conflict + counter ≥3 and trend ≤1) is met; no boundary or escalation-vs-theta constraints bind.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.