Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 5.0pp from 42.5% to 47.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 47.5%.

Days to resolution: 233 days. Theta-bleed check: This is not an election; although positive action is required, the deadline is >90 days away, so theta effects are negligible over the next few days. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO (formal rejections and Tehran ruling out a nuclear hand-over), while the trend is UP for YES — they CONFLICT. The story is INTENSIFYING around concrete rejections (talks stalling, oil reaction) with no fresh pro-YES process steps. After clustering: two distinct ACTION-tier events — (1) Trump formally rejects Iran’s latest response; (2) Iran rejects Trump’s plan and rules out a nuclear hand-over; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=2, counter_stale=1. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=2. With zero concrete pro-YES and two fresh ACTION-tier counter-signals (formal rejections per Principle 4), the UP move is more likely to retrace than sustain. Remaining space: 52.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 1 (news-trend conflict) binds → STALL or REVERSE; given ACTION-tier counter-signals, choose REVERSE; no other binding rules.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.