Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? ↗

Price fell 5.0pp from 35.5% to 30.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 30.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 36.5%, 72h range: 19.5%-38.5%]

Days to resolution: 32 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Trump announces end of military operations against Iran) by a fixed deadline within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN, so absence of news is bearish for YES. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news during this window is sparse but crucial—there is a single clustered event (Trump's prior announcement of "major combat operations" against Iran on Feb. 28), but no new evidence of an announcement ending operations, nor any process steps toward ending the conflict. The trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming more likely, and this aligns with the lack of new de-escalation or resolution-class signals. News momentum is plateauing: most coverage is context or commentary (calls with Putin, Ukraine ceasefire, Iran's possible retaliation), but none are concrete steps toward the market's required outcome. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1 (the prior announcement of escalation, not de-escalation). Remaining space: 30.5pp (from 30.5% to 0%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, not highly mixed, no spike exhaustion, and theta-bleed supports continuation of the DOWN move in the absence of positive YES signals. No boundary effect (price >20%). The single ★DIRECT event is not a process step toward YES, so LOW conviction is not warranted—MEDIUM is justified by the quality of the absence (Principle 1).