Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? ↗

Price fell 3.0pp from 4.0% to 1.0% over 1h (spike). Now at 1.0%.

Days to resolution: 49 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-decay market (deadline <90 days) where a positive action is required; absent fresh escalation, odds should drift toward NO, so the DOWN move in NO runs against theta. The ★DIRECT news does not show fresh, concrete Greco‑Turkish military action; effectively it supports NO (or is stale), so the price move conflicts with the news. Coverage is starved of fresh direct catalysts; cited items (Greece neutralizing a mystery naval drone; Ankara mulling a maritime-claims bill; Turkey “sounding alarm” over French troops in Cyprus) are non-operational/rhetorical and dated May 9. After clustering: 0 distinct fresh ★DIRECT events from 3 total; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 1pp. With zero fresh escalation signals, active theta-bleed, and a deep boundary at 1%, a small reversion upward in NO is more likely than further downside; Hard-rule check: Rule 1 (news–trend conflict) binds against CONTINUE; Rule 7 (theta + boundary) biases away from further decline; Rule 4 phrasing blocks only CONTINUE, not REVERSE.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.