Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? ↗

Price fell 11.5pp from 70.5% to 59.0% over 2h (steady). Now at 59.0%.

Days to resolution: 56 days. Theta-bleed check: active — the market requires a positive action (Kushner attends) within ≤90 days; absence of concrete progress is bearish for YES (bullish for NO), so time decay works against the observed DOWN move in NO. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO: the only concrete action is the White House appointing Nick Stewart to the Iran talks team (an ACTION-tier signal on delegation composition), while “US in active talks” is RHETORIC per rules (“discussions confirmed/underway”). Thus the trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), which CONFLICTS with the higher-quality direct signal. News momentum looks plateauing with repeats and commentary around the same appointment and general talk of stalled/mediated talks, not intensifying toward Kushner’s attendance. After clustering, there is 1 distinct ACTION event (Stewart appointment) versus rhetoric about talks; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1. Given theta-bleed favoring NO and a lack of any ACTION-tier signals for YES, the downward move is likely to lose steam; with Remaining space: 41pp, a wholesale reversal isn’t mandated by counts, so stabilization is more probable. Hard rules: RULE 1 (news-trend conflict) binds → STALL/REVERSE only; RULE 4 (“plateauing”) also points to STALL; no other binding rules.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.