Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? ↗

Price rose 4.7pp from 6.6% to 11.3% over 1h (spike). Now at 11.3%.

Days to resolution: 232 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. YES-WORLD: The UN formally appoints Macky Sall as the next Secretary-General (i.e., he is the one selected/confirmed by the UN process). NO-WORLD: Someone else is appointed as the next Secretary-General by the deadline or no appointment of Macky Sall occurs (near-miss: Sall is nominated/endorsed but not appointed). There are no ★DIRECT items to label (no ACTION/EVIDENCE on Sall’s appointment). The trend is UP for YES, but there is no ★DIRECT news; the only fresh context headline highlights another candidate’s nomination, which, if anything, tilts against Sall, so alignment is effectively starved and weakly counter. Momentum looks starved with a 1-hour spike lacking a matching catalyst, suggesting liquidity rather than information; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero direct support and slightly negative context, a modest retrace is more likely than follow-through; Remaining space: 88.7pp. Hard rules: No clear news-trend conflict (no ★DIRECT one-way news), not BALANCED MIXED, spike-exhaustion rule (>5pp) not triggered; Rule 4 bars CONTINUE on starved news, supporting a non-continue call.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.