Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? ↗

Price rose 5.4pp from 1.4% to 6.8% over 7h (spike). Now at 6.8%.

Days to resolution: 24 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline is within 90 days and a positive action is required (a physical visit), so absence of progress is inherently bearish for YES. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (really NOISE); the trend is UP (YES becoming more likely), but there is no resolution-touching news about a Pakistan visit, so the price move lacks news alignment. Momentum looks STARVED: the 5.4pp spike has no matching ★DIRECT catalyst, suggesting a liquidity-driven pop rather than information. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no concrete steps (announcement, schedule, flight plans) toward a Pakistan visit—and with theta-bleed working against YES—the spike is susceptible to mean reversion. Remaining space: 93.2pp; Hard rule check: Rule 5 (Spike Exhaustion) applies and leans REVERSE, and Rule 4 language (starved/no catalyst) blocks a CONTINUE call; no earlier binding conflict rule applies.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.