US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 8.0pp from 47.5% to 55.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 55.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 44.5%, 72h range: 32.5%-55.5%] [EVR: 72h range 23.0pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 23 days. Theta-bleed is active (positive action required by a near-term deadline), so in the absence of progress YES would drift down; however, we do have one concrete development. The ★DIRECT news is ASYMMETRIC MIXED favoring YES: the President’s announced pause of “Project Freedom” is a de-escalatory action consistent with a deal pathway, while opposing items (“too soon,” “no new exchanges,” “one week to respond”) are rhetoric and count 0 by the strict rule. The spike aligns with a single actionable catalyst and broader coverage is largely commentary around it, suggesting some follow-through is reasonable if no counter-action appears. After clustering, there is 1 distinct action (U.S. pausing the operation) and no action-tier negatives. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 44.5pp. Hard-rule check: Rule 3 (ASYMMETRIC MIXED) applies → CONTINUE allowed with MEDIUM conviction and ≤5pp move; no NEWS-TREND conflict, not balanced mixed, spike not near boundary, and conflict-ending 4+ E-signal cap does not apply.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.