Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? ↗

Price rose 5.5pp from 55.7% to 61.2% over 1h (spike). Now at 61.2%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 54.5%, 72h range: 48.9%-61.2%]

Days to resolution: 247 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this 2-3 day horizon since the deadline is >90 days away. The trend is UP (+5.5pp spike), implying YES (Maduro remains leader) is becoming more likely. The ★DIRECT news is MIXED but leans toward NO: the most impactful event is the arrival of a top US diplomat in Caracas "as part of post-Maduro transition plan," which is a concrete process step toward a transition away from Maduro (RESISTANCE to YES). The other ★DIRECT events concern the US easing sanctions to allow Maduro to pay for his legal defense in a US drug trafficking case—this is a concrete action, but it is ambiguous: it supports Maduro's ability to defend himself, but also underscores the seriousness of the legal threat he faces. After clustering, there are two distinct real-world events: (1) US allows Maduro to pay for his defense (MOMENTUM for YES, as it may help him resist ouster), and (2) US diplomat arrives for "post-Maduro transition" (RESISTANCE to YES, as it signals international preparation for his exit). Momentum assessment: the story is INTENSIFYING, with new concrete process steps on both sides, but the "post-Maduro transition" language is a strong, direct signal against the trend. Momentum signals: trend=1 (defense payment), counter=1 (transition plan). Remaining space: 38.8pp (from 61.2% to 100%).

Step 3 hard rule check: Step 1a is ASYMMETRIC MIXED, with the "post-Maduro transition" event being higher quality and more directly relevant to the market resolution than the legal defense payment. Per Rule 3, action may be CONTINUE or STALL, but conviction must be ≤ MEDIUM and estimated_move ≤ 5pp. However, since the highest-quality signal is against the trend, and the spike may have been driven by the ambiguous legal defense news, the move is likely to stall or partially reverse. No hard rules force REVERSE, but the balance of evidence does not support further continuation.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.