Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? ↗

Price fell 5.0pp from 83.5% to 78.5% over 2h (front_loaded). Now at 78.5%.

Days to resolution: 70 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline <90 days, trend DOWN, positive action required), but price is near the upper boundary (78.5%), so theta effect is diminished and capped. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete evidence of Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran, nor any verified process steps toward such an announcement. The trend is DOWN, implying the NO outcome (Trump will NOT announce an end) is becoming less likely, but the news does not provide direct support for this move. The CONTEXT news is dominated by diplomatic maneuvering, ceasefire uncertainty, and rhetoric (talks scheduled, accusations, threats, sanctions, but no physical de-escalation or operational halt). No new escalation or de-escalation actions—just process noise and repeated commentary. News momentum is plateauing: the story is not intensifying, and there is no fresh catalyst. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 28.5pp. Step 3 hard rules: RULE 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) binds—price is ≥78.5%, so further theta-driven decline is capped at 3pp and should only continue if there is a fresh catalyst, which is absent. RULE 4 ("plateauing," "not intensifying") also binds, requiring STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.