Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 7.4pp from 21.1% to 28.5% over 30.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 26.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 1.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 24.5%, 72h range: 13.5%-34.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran formally agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile; NO = no such agreement (talks stall/escalate). Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 21% to 28%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence: the price rose while incremental news modestly favored progress (E>D), so price and momentum are aligned. Specifics: “U.S. nears framework for Iran deal as Trump demands surrender of enriched uranium” and “US awaiting response from Iran over proposals” are process E-signals that raise odds without satisfying the settlement; “US fires on two Iran‑flagged tankers” is fresh kinetic D that tempers, but does not negate, the repricing. Given multiple fresh process signals and no ★ DIRECT resolution (no agreement signed), a 7.4pp, 30h grind-up is consistent with 5–10pp process-driven repricing; the move was justified rather than an overreaction likely to revert.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.