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Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? ↗

will-john-cornyn-win-the-2026-republican-primary · Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner · category: Elections, March 3 Primaries, Parent For Derivative, Politics, Primaries, Republican Primary, Senate Primary, Texas Primary, Texas Senate, US Election, primary elections · resolves 2026-05-26

run_id: c71a7af1-ab8e-4c23-b687-f0d1b545be4a · started 2026-04-28T13:09:14 · status skipped · planner_skipped · ✕ planner rejected

poor_real_rr: real_rr 0.10 < 0.45 for spike move (Risk=5.0pp vs Reward=0.5pp)

signal detected

detect_reversal

● executed

direction

DOWN

current / peak

41.5% / 50.5%

move_start

40.5%

reversal

+9.0pp

move size / hours

10.0pp / 22.5h

shape

spike

72h range

40.0%—50.5% (Δ10.5pp)

since peak

0.5h

Price rose 10.0pp from 40.5% to 50.5% over 22.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 41.5%, down 9.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

news gathered

news retrieval (tomographic)

● executed

raw→filtered: 56 → 2 quality: HIGH tokens: 14551

2026-04-28 gnews_indirect_evidence relevant

Talarico leads both Cornyn, Paxton in new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race - The Texas Tribune

2026-04-28 gnews_thesis relevant

Texas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls - The New York Times

AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed

OVERPRICED conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: LARGE action: NO

gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 11234 tokens

Semantic Polarity: YES = Cornyn wins the 2026 Texas GOP primary; NO = he loses it. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: UP (from 40% to 50%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — election/primary market
Logical Divergence: Price rose on zero verified DIRECT momentum, indicating a flow-driven/process-only spike rather than resolution-relevant news; no Strong Divergence. The cited items are CONTEXT-only: a Texas Tribune general-election poll (Democrat Talarico vs. GOP nominees) and an NYT polling page update — neither is a GOP primary poll, major endorsement, withdrawal, scandal, or other ★ DIRECT primary signal. A 10pp spike on indirect, non-primary news is oversized and already largely retraced; the move was not justified and should revert.

rule audit

audit_gate

● executed

✓

ALL

trade plan

position_planner

○ skipped

✕ poor_real_rr: real_rr 0.10 < 0.45 for spike move (Risk=5.0pp vs Reward=0.5pp)

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.