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Epstein suicide note released by May 31? ↗
epstein-suicide-note-released-by-may-31
· Epstein suicide note released by...? · category: Epstein, Politics, Trump
· resolves
run_id: c73aa151-0ee5-4a47-95fd-5ef75d4585b2
· started
· status
skipped
· audit_blocked
· ✕ audit blocked
move_start (9.5%) appears to be a short-lived spike, not a stable equilibrium. 72h range: 9.5%-36.5% (midpoint: 23.0%). Distance from midpoint: 13.5pp vs move_size: 8.0pp (ratio: 1.7x > 1.5x limit).
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
15.5% / 17.5%
move_start
9.5%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
8.0pp / 3.5h
shape
steady
72h range
9.5%—36.5% (Δ27.0pp)
since peak
2.0h
Price rose 8.0pp from 9.5% to 17.5% over 3.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 15.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 2.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 27.5%, 72h range: 9.5%-36.5%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 331 → 33
quality: HIGH
tokens: 20139
article_thesis
relevant
Compare the Purported Epstein Suicide Note to His Writings
article_thesis
relevant
Jeffrey Epstein jail pal '100%' sure sexual predator killed himself
article_thesis
relevant
Jeffrey Epstein's brother says newly surfaced 'suicide note' is a forgery
article_thesis
noise
UFOs spotted by Apollo astronauts on lunar missions, newly released files reveal as Trump accused of 'distraction'
article_thesis
direct
US judge allows the release of Jeffrey Epstein's alleged suicide note
article_thesis
relevant
'Forgery': Epstein's brother cries foul on alleged suicide note
article_thesis
noise
DOCUMENT RTL - Daniel Siad "prêt à confronter les victimes" : Ebba Karlsson, qui l'accuse de viol, répond au recruteur de mannequins mis en cause dans l'affaire Epstein
article_thesis
relevant
Opinion | The crucial details to pay attention to in Epstein's purported suicide note
article_thesis
relevant
Newly unsealed note adds attention to Jeffrey Epstein death
article_thesis
direct
Jeffrey Epstein's alleged suicide note unsealed after five years - Daily Times
article_thesis
relevant
Epstein's 'final note' unsealed. But why did it take so long? | The Mary Sue
article_thesis
relevant
Purported Epstein Suicide Note Has Echoes of His Other Messages
article_thesis
noise
OVNI : les États-Unis publient 161 documents secrets sur War.gov
article_thesis
relevant
Epstein's 'suicide note' has emerged: Being able to choose when to say goodbye is a great blessing
article_thesis
noise
Was Jeffrey Epstein's Copy of a Modernist Painting Available for Sale on eBay?
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 14609 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = an Epstein suicide note is publicly released by May 31; NO = no qualifying note is released (or what surfaced doesn’t qualify). Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 10% to 18%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed. No new ★ DIRECT release occurred during the 3.5h rise; the only resolution-adjacent event was the May 6–7 judge unsealing of a purported/unauthenticated note (priced-in), while incremental headlines stressed “unauthenticated” and included the brother calling it a forgery (D), which do not increase the chance of a qualifying release now. With zero fresh E and at least one incremental D opposing, the 8pp grind up looks like a news-thin bounce rather than new resolution progress, so some reversion from the spike is likely.
rule audit
✕ blocked
audit_gate
✕
C_BUBBLE_MOVE_START
move_start (9.5%) appears to be a short-lived spike, not a stable equilibrium. 72h range: 9.5%-36.5% (midpoint: 23.0%). Distance from midpoint: 13.5pp vs move_size: 8.0pp (ratio: 1.7x > 1.5x limit).
step post-omit
● executed
news watch (A.2 / A.3)
watch: cc6686bf
status:
↻ reeval_fired
(flipped_to_trade)
armed: 2026-05-08T23:20Z
closed: 2026-05-09T00:35Z
polls: 2
signals seen: 1810
decision price: 15.5pct