free sign in →
← back to pipeline
mr

Epstein suicide note released by May 31?

epstein-suicide-note-released-by-may-31 · Epstein suicide note released by...? · category: Epstein, Politics, Trump · resolves
run_id: c73aa151-0ee5-4a47-95fd-5ef75d4585b2 · started · status skipped · audit_blocked · ✕ audit blocked
move_start (9.5%) appears to be a short-lived spike, not a stable equilibrium. 72h range: 9.5%-36.5% (midpoint: 23.0%). Distance from midpoint: 13.5pp vs move_size: 8.0pp (ratio: 1.7x > 1.5x limit).
signal detected

detect_reversal

● executed
direction
DOWN
current / peak
15.5% / 17.5%
move_start
9.5%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
8.0pp / 3.5h
shape
steady
72h range
9.5%—36.5% (Δ27.0pp)
since peak
2.0h

Price rose 8.0pp from 9.5% to 17.5% over 3.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 15.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 2.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 27.5%, 72h range: 9.5%-36.5%]

news gathered

news retrieval (tomographic)

● executed
raw→filtered: 331 → 33 quality: HIGH tokens: 20139
AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed
OVERPRICED conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: SMALL action: NO override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 14609 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = an Epstein suicide note is publicly released by May 31; NO = no qualifying note is released (or what surfaced doesn’t qualify). Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 10% to 18%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed. No new ★ DIRECT release occurred during the 3.5h rise; the only resolution-adjacent event was the May 6–7 judge unsealing of a purported/unauthenticated note (priced-in), while incremental headlines stressed “unauthenticated” and included the brother calling it a forgery (D), which do not increase the chance of a qualifying release now. With zero fresh E and at least one incremental D opposing, the 8pp grind up looks like a news-thin bounce rather than new resolution progress, so some reversion from the spike is likely.
rule audit

audit_gate

✕ blocked
C_BUBBLE_MOVE_START
move_start (9.5%) appears to be a short-lived spike, not a stable equilibrium. 72h range: 9.5%-36.5% (midpoint: 23.0%). Distance from midpoint: 13.5pp vs move_size: 8.0pp (ratio: 1.7x > 1.5x limit).
step post-omit

news watch (A.2 / A.3)

● executed
watch: cc6686bf
status: ↻ reeval_fired (flipped_to_trade)
armed: 2026-05-08T23:20Z
closed: 2026-05-09T00:35Z
polls: 2
signals seen: 1810
decision price: 15.5pct