Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? ↗

Price fell 12.4pp from 66.8% to 54.4% over 32.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 57.9%, up 3.4pp from trough, 30.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = next qualifying US–Iran diplomatic meeting is held in Pakistan; NO = the next such meeting occurs somewhere else. Trend is DOWN (67%→54%), pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: DOWN (from 67% to 54%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — venue market (no theta constraint)
No ★ DIRECT evidence names Pakistan as the venue or schedules a US–Iran meeting there; the closest headlines are Iran–China talks in Beijing and US–Qatar talks in Washington (neither is a US–Iran meeting nor a venue decision), which fail the settlement criteria for this market. A 12.4pp, 32.5h steady drop on process-only, indirect context is an overreaction; with zero venue-specific signals, the move looks flow-driven and should mean-revert upward.

Kill switches:
- Reuters/AP reports “US and Iran to hold next talks in Beijing/Doha/Muscat,” with officials on record.
- US State Department or Iran MFA announces/schedules a bilateral meeting with venue explicitly not in Pakistan (e.g., Oman or Qatar).
- Credible outlet confirms a US–Iran meeting already occurred in a third country, settling the “next” venue elsewhere.
- Pakistani MFA states on record that Pakistan will not host the next US–Iran meeting.