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mr

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

romanian-pm-bolojan-out-by-june-30 · Romanian PM Bolojan out by...? · category: Politics, Romania, World · resolves
run_id: cb2cae35-ce77-4143-bae7-3e9cd6c932fb · started · status skipped · planner_skipped · ✕ planner rejected
no_trade: action=OMIT
signal detected

detect_reversal

● executed
direction
UP
current / peak
82.7% / 80.3%
move_start
90.9%
reversal
+2.3pp
move size / hours
10.6pp / 59.0h
shape
spike
72h range
80.3%—91.1% (Δ10.8pp)
since peak
0.5h

Price fell 10.6pp from 90.9% to 80.3% over 59.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 82.7%, up 2.3pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough.

news gathered

news retrieval (tomographic)

● executed
raw→filtered: 25 → 0 quality: LOW tokens: 9945

retrieval recorded but no surviving headlines — the keyword nets didn't match any articles in the window.

AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed
FAIR conviction: LOW opportunity: None action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.7 · 11413 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Bolojan leaves office (resigns, dismissed, no-confidence) by June 30; NO = he remains PM through June 30. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. 
Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 91% to 80%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence exists. There are no ★ DIRECT reports of resignation, dismissal, a successful no-confidence vote, or a formal coalition break that would satisfy the settlement criteria. With zero verified signals and a near-term deadline, the 10.6pp decline is theta-aligned time-decay repricing; absent contrary news, the move is justified rather than an overreaction.
rule audit

audit_gate

● executed
ALL
trade plan

position_planner

○ skipped
✕ no_trade: action=OMIT

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.

step post-omit

news watch (A.2 / A.3)

● executed
watch: 56a290fc
status: ⏳ expired
armed: 2026-05-11T13:04Z
closed: 2026-05-12T13:20Z
polls: 7
signals seen: 3507
decision price: 82.7pct