Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? ↗

Price rose 4.5pp from 0.2% to 4.7% over 1h (spike). Now at 3.0%.

Days to resolution: 54 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a positive-action/location market with a ≤90-day deadline, so absence of concrete venue news is bearish for YES, but the observed move was UP, not a time-decay drift. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED overall talks progress but offers no Switzerland-specific signal; for our venue-specific criterion it is ASYMMETRIC MIXED against YES, as multiple items point to Pakistan/China mediation or cast doubt on imminent direct talks. Momentum looks like a rumor-driven spike with “sources say” reporting about a 14-point memo and de-escalation, but no Switzerland venue mention and some hints toward other venues; this suggests plateauing for the Switzerland-specific thesis. After clustering, there are 0 distinct Switzerland venue confirmations and at least 2 counter-lean items (Pakistan/China involvement, “too early” for direct talks), so Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=2. Continuation vs reversal: with no Switzerland ACTION/EVIDENCE and counter-venue context, follow-through for a Switzerland-specific pop looks weak; the price already retraced, so stabilization is more likely than renewed upside. Remaining space: 97.0pp. Step 3 hard rule check: ASYMMETRIC MIXED (against trend) → avoid CONTINUE; use of “sources say”/plateauing triggers Rule 4 → STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.