Starmer out by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 17.5pp from 44.0% to 26.5% over 5.5h (back_loaded), then reversed. Now at 28.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 1.0h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES=Starmer is out of office by June 30, 2026; NO=he remains in office through that date. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=4, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=4, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 44% to 26%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
Strong Divergence exists: multiple fresh E signals (heavy Labour local losses and Reform surge; public calls for Starmer to resign; a former Labour minister urging Andy Burnham to replace him; reporting that Ed Miliband discussed a managed exit) versus one D signal (Starmer’s on-record refusal to resign), yet price fell sharply. None of the headlines is a resolution-level step (no resignation announced, no leadership contest formally triggered/scheduled, no confidence vote called), so a 17.5pp drop on process/pressure news plus a denial is overshoot; directionally, the flow should have pushed YES up, not down. The move is thus unjustified by the news and likely to mean-revert upward.

Kill switches:
- Labour Party (NEC/PLP) formally announces a leadership contest or rule mechanism to challenge Starmer is triggered.
- Starmer announces his resignation or sets a public timetable to step down before June 30, 2026.
- Two or more senior cabinet ministers publicly withdraw support or resign while calling for Starmer to go.
- A parliamentary confidence vote in the government is scheduled with credible reports of Labour defections endangering survival.
- Credible reporting that Starmer has agreed privately to a managed exit within the market’s timeframe.