Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 6.0pp from 56.5% to 62.5% over 4.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 60.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 1.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 59.5%, 72h range: 52.0%-68.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump announces the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted by May 31; NO = he does not. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World.
Momentum check: E=0, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=0, D=2 (priced-in: E=2, D=2).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 56% to 62%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Logical Divergence exists (price rose while fresh signals point away from lifting), but not Strong Divergence (D<4).
★ DIRECT/process-adjacent items on 4/28 were bearish for YES: NYT reports Trump is dissatisfied with Iran’s Hormuz plan (D8 blocker), and commentary that Iran is setting terms suggests talks are not converging; earlier positives (Iran’s offer; WH discussing it) were pre-move and only process, not an announcement. Continued enforcement (“US forces turn back 38 ships”) confirms status quo rather than movement toward lifting. Given fresh news leaned against a lift while the price climbed, the 6pp rise looks unjustified and should mean-revert.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.