Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 4.0pp from 25.5% to 21.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 21.5%.

Days to resolution: 50 days. This is a time‑decay market requiring a positive action (Iran agreeing to surrender uranium) by a fixed deadline, so theta‑bleed is active; in the absence of concrete steps, probabilities should drift bearish for YES (bullish for NO), which runs counter to the observed drop in NO and thus requires fresh pro‑YES catalysts to sustain. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED: it is mostly rhetoric about “awaiting a response” and threats of “Project Freedom Plus,” with no formal acceptance by Iran or verified steps toward surrender; Iranian statements that talks are “not surrender” are also rhetoric and lean against YES but do not constitute action. Momentum looks plateauing, with repeated commentary rather than new concrete moves. After clustering, there are no fresh ACTION/EVIDENCE items directly advancing uranium surrender; the one explicit rejection (“Iran refuses to concede,” May 8) is stale relative to this window. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=1. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero concrete support for further downside in NO and theta-bleed pointing the other way, follow‑through is limited; stabilization is more likely than continued decline. Remaining space: 21.5pp. Step 3 checks: Rule 2 (BALANCED MIXED) → STALL; Rule 4 (plateauing language) also points to STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.