← back to pipeline
mr
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? ↗
will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-may-31-2026-313-388-459-589
· Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? · category: Geopolitics, Hormuz, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, Politics, Strait of Hormuz, Trump, U.S. x Iran
· resolves
run_id: d2e5e8b8-8b5c-4708-afa6-845bbfc6d6e0
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
no_trade: action=OMIT
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
27.5% / 25.5%
move_start
33.1%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
7.6pp / 14.5h
shape
spike
72h range
25.5%—43.5% (Δ18.0pp)
since peak
2.5h
Price fell 7.6pp from 33.1% to 25.5% over 14.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 27.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 2.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 40.5%, 72h range: 25.5%-43.5%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 336 → 6
quality: HIGH
tokens: 5381
article_thesis
relevant
Trump Confirms New Iran Proposal but Signals It May Be Dead on Arrival
article_antithesis
relevant
Trump reviews Iranian proposal as Pakistan mediates tense negotiations
article_antithesis
direct
Trump skeptical of Iranian proposal to end war, signals possible renewed action
article_precursor
relevant
Axios claims about Irans 14 conditions for negotiations | AVA
article_antithesis
direct
US Iran War Escalation Warning: Donald Trump Signals Fresh Military Strikes If Tehran "Misbehaves," Ceasefire to End? Check
gnews_mechanism
relevant
Iran supertanker evades US blockade, impacting Strait of Hormuz market outlook - Crypto Briefing
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
FAIR
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: None
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 14386 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump announces the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted by May 31; NO = no such announcement/blockade continues. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1 (Iran submits a new proposal; Trump acknowledges review/mediation), D=2 (Trump signals proposal likely unacceptable/DOA and warns of possible renewed strikes) (priced-in: E=2, D=2). Cessation D-collapse: raw D≈4 → collapsed D=2 (incremental); priced-in raw D≈4 → collapsed D=2. Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: DOWN (from 33% to 26%) Alignment: SAME Theta: DOWN — aligned No divergence: the drop aligns with fresh D blockers and with time-decay; no Strong Divergence (opposing E<4). ★ DIRECT items fail settlement criteria (no announcement of lifting); instead we have “blockade remains” earlier and, incrementally, Trump’s skepticism and strike warnings reducing odds, partly offset by the single E of a formal proposal under review. With a near-term deadline and a theta-aligned move supported by modest verified D momentum, the 7.6pp decline is justified; limited mean reversion expected.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ no_trade: action=OMIT
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.