◢ pm_agent
free sign in →
← back to pipeline
mr

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗

will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election · Brazil Presidential Election · category: Brazil, Global Elections, Macro Election 2, Main Election, Politics, World, World Elections · resolves
run_id: d3d04009-7896-46cb-b8ff-d5ecbe2dbd7d · started · status skipped · audit_blocked · ✕ audit blocked
move_start (24.1%) is near 72h low and was reached by a 15.5pp spike from 24h-ago price (39.6%). This is a bubble bottom, not a stable equilibrium. Mean-reverting to this level is structurally unsound.
signal detected

detect_reversal

● executed
direction
DOWN
current / peak
37.6% / 39.6%
move_start
24.1%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
15.5pp / 0.5h
shape
steady
72h range
24.1%—50.0% (Δ25.9pp)
since peak
0.5h

Price rose 15.5pp from 24.1% to 39.6% over 0.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 37.6%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 39.6%, 72h range: 24.1%-50.0%]

news gathered

news retrieval (tomographic)

● executed
raw→filtered: 84 → 5 quality: HIGH tokens: 5094
gnews_indirect_evidence relevant
Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Are Neck and Neck in Presidential Runoff, Poll Finds - U.S. News & World Report
gnews_indirect_evidence relevant
Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro deadlocked ahead of Brazil election, poll shows - MSN
article_precursor relevant
O Grande Debate: Terceira via ainda tem espaço para crescer? | CNN Brasil
gnews_indirect_evidence relevant
Brazil race shows high rejection for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro - Valor International
gnews_thesis direct
Bolsonaro’s son runs for president with a mission: Get dad out of prison - The Washington Post
AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed
FAIR conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: None action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 12226 tokens 
Semantic Polarity: YES = Flávio Bolsonaro wins in Oct 2026; NO = anyone else wins. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: UP (from 24% to 40%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — no hard rule. No Strong Divergence; the main incremental item is a fresh poll showing Lula and Flávio deadlocked in a runoff (two headlines, one underlying event), which is consistent with a higher win probability but is not a resolution-level event (no official results, disqualifications, or institutional changes). Given the alignment between a tie-poll headline and the upward repricing, plus the broader 72h context with prior prices near/above 40%, the 15.5pp jump is largely consistent with news momentum rather than a clear overreaction, so a strong mean-reversion edge is not indicated.
rule audit

audit_gate

✕ blocked
✕
C_BUBBLE_24H_SPIKE
move_start (24.1%) is near 72h low and was reached by a 15.5pp spike from 24h-ago price (39.6%). This is a bubble bottom, not a stable equilibrium. Mean-reverting to this level is structurally unsound.