Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? ↗

Price fell 4.5pp from 50.0% to 45.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 45.5%.

Days to resolution: 247 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this horizon, so time decay does not materially favor either side. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), and the ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO: Iran is proposing to delay nuclear talks and is offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without addressing its nuclear program, with multiple sources confirming that nuclear negotiations are being postponed or deprioritized. There is no evidence of Iran agreeing to end enrichment; rather, the news shows process steps away from a deal on enrichment. The story is PLATEAUING: there is a flurry of reporting on the same underlying Iranian proposal to delay nuclear talks, but no new escalation or breakthrough. After clustering, there is one distinct momentum signal (Iran formally proposing to delay nuclear negotiations and decouple them from other talks), repeated in several outlets. There are no counter-signals indicating progress toward an enrichment halt. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 45.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: No conflict, not highly mixed, not a spike exhaustion, and the move is supported by a concrete process signal (Iran's proposal to delay nuclear talks). The move is information-driven and likely to see some follow-through, but as the story is plateauing and not intensifying, conviction is MEDIUM and estimated move is capped at 6pp.