Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 22.5pp from 38.9% to 16.4% over 20.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 23.0%, up 6.6pp from trough, 1.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = no qualifying US–Iran diplomatic meeting by Jun 30, 2026; NO = at least one qualifying meeting occurs. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=5, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=5 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: UP
Price move direction: DOWN (from 39% to 16%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: UP — opposed
No Strong Divergence (price fell and D slightly dominates), but the dominant signals are process-only de-escalation (draft “one-page memo” under review D7, mediator optimism D5, US pause of operations D4, Hormuz passage assurance D6) that do not themselves confirm or schedule a qualifying US–Iran diplomatic meeting; meanwhile, Trump saying it’s “too early” for a peace deal and Iran dismissing proposals (E) are direct headwinds to a meeting. With no headline confirming or scheduling a bilateral US–Iran diplomatic meeting, a 22.5pp collapse on process news looks oversized (calibration: several medium-impact process signals usually justify ~5–10pp), so the move likely overreacted and should partially revert.

Kill switches:
- White House and Iran’s MFA jointly announce a scheduled bilateral meeting (date/location) before June 30, 2026
- Reuters/AP reports US Secretary of State holds a face-to-face meeting with Iran’s Foreign Minister (photo/communiqué)
- Pakistan (or another mediator) confirms a direct US–Iran ministerial in Islamabad/Beijing within days
- Official readouts from both sides state a direct bilateral session occurred (even on the margins of a multilateral) before the deadline
- US and Iran issue a joint communiqué after direct talks confirming continued bilateral meetings before June 30, 2026

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.