US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price fell 6.7pp from 24.2% to 17.5% over 3.5h (front_loaded), then reversed. Now at 19.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 33.5%, 72h range: 9.5%-34.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a verified US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by May 15, 2026; NO = no such meeting by then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=5, D=4, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=3, D=3). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 24% to 18%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
Incremental headlines modestly favored a meeting (Pakistan’s FO optimism/offer to host; Trump saying “very good discussions”), but there was no ★ DIRECT confirmation/scheduling, and Iran’s president’s “stabbing from behind” remark is a fresh blocker; thus no strong, resolution-adjacent push to YES. No headline confirms or schedules a US–Iran meeting, so mediator optimism and “near agreement” market takes are process-only and do not satisfy settlement criteria. With an 8‑day deadline and a theta‑aligned 6–7pp drop, the move is consistent with time decay absent a firm meeting announcement; any bounce should be limited unless a meeting is formally set.

Kill switches:
- U.S. State Department announces a scheduled in-person meeting between U.S. and Iranian foreign ministers before May 15.
- Pakistan’s MFA publishes a date/time and venue for a US–Iran ministerial meeting or agreement signing before May 15.
- The White House confirms President Trump will meet an Iranian counterpart on May 14–15 (e.g., in China or Pakistan).
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirms a direct bilateral meeting with U.S. officials set before May 15.
- A joint on-record announcement sets a trilateral US–Iran–Pakistan meeting with a specific place and time before May 15.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.